Modelling predictions on the effects of AVs
Assuming current vehicle ownership trends continue…
(1) More trips generated
• More people (young, old, those without a licence) will have greater accessibility to car transport with AVs
• Lower operating costs which induce/encourage more trips (due the trend to electric vehicles)
• Empty vehicle trips i.e. vehicles driving home empty to park or go to different family members (repositioning trips).
(2) Longer average trip distance
• Lower value of time due to less opportunity cost when driving – work, be entertained (catchup on Netflix) or sleep while you travel
• Modelling undertaken expects an increase in average car trip times and distances
(3) Increased car mode share
• Modelling for South-East Qld estimates that the car mode share could increase to ~87% under a high AV scenario (up from ~80% under BAU). An increase in car mode share would decrease the share of PT and/or active transport (walking/cycling).
(4) Potential capacity improvements
• AVs are expected to be able to drive closer together and accept smaller gaps to achieve a higher vehicle flow-rate per lane per hour
• AVs are expected be have the ability to communicate Vehicle to Vehicle (V2V) and Vehicle to Infrastructure (V2I) to navigate intersections more efficiently
• Transition phase – capacity benefits are not expected to be fully realised until a high percentage of fleet are fully autonomous, as human drivers in the mix will be limited by human reaction times and driving styles
• When we reach a near full AV fleet across the network – the congestion impacts of this extra demand are mitigated by capacity improvements
• Travel Time Reliability? If there are less accidents, travel time reliability is likely to improve (less variability)
However what about Shared AVs?
- It is suggested that AVs could be used to facilitate car-pooling activities with no driver required. The booking and transaction process would be facilitated through a mobile app, like Uber or Lyft. Under this scenario, vehicles would be largely owned by mobility operators and users would pay for AV travel on a per trip (similar to an Uber or taxi today) or subscription basis.
- Shared AVs could be looked at as a new mode of transport between private car and traditional PT (buses).
- The key promise of Shared AVs are that it would increase the average vehicle occupancy (persons per vehicle), which would reduce the overall amount of vehicles required for the transport demand; reducing the vehicular road space required, and reducing emissions.
- There are potential efficiency benefits in a Shared AV scenario – it is often claimed that on average, cars are parked 95% of the time (which makes sense; say you use a car for an hour a day, that’s 23 out of 24 hours or 95% of the time being unused). Further, a high majority of trips have a single occupant, meanwhile most cars have a capacity of 4-5 seats. So of the ~5% of time they are being used, they are being utilised to ~20/25% of their capacity… so overall their utilisation is 1% of their potential! Shared AV operators would be expected to achieve far greater utilisation of the vehicle assets by carrying more passengers, more often, and possible undertaking delivery/freight tasks in off-peak periods. This could lead to lower transport costs to the end user, reinforcing the transition from private car ownership to shared mobility.
- There could also be better opportunities for integration with the PT network (complementary rather than competing).
- Modelling shows that Shared AVs have potential to reduce congestion and have an overall positive impact (including significant environmental benefits). An interesting infographic from UC Davis is shown below.
Image: Three revolutions in urban transport, University of California Davis and the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy (ITDP), 2017. Values are on a global basis.
The concept of shared mobility doesn’t rely on on AVs and in fact Uber has recently launched its UberPool service in Sydney however both AVs and shared mobility are significant trends occurring simultaneously and could be complementary to each other.
The road to Utopia – possible solutions to consider for an autonomous future?
Road user charging (pay-per-km)
• Could help replace the revenue expected to be lost by Governments through licence fees (decreasing car ownership), fuel taxes (with the trend to electric), parking fines, speeding fines, parking rates etc
• Higher rates at peak times could assist to manage travel demand – encourage travel in the off-peak when possible
• Occupancy-based rates (lower occupancy = higher rate) – this could encourage sharing and discourage empty trips. How that could technically be implemented is a challenge though.
AV-only Lanes (on Highways)
• In the transition phases to allow the capacity benefits of AVs to be realised
Integration with the existing and future PT networks
• AVs could complement and not compete with PT (AV’s as an access mode to PT)
• Trains, trams and buses – much higher passenger capacity per vehicle for high demand corridors; which will be needed with the huge population growth also occuring
• Potential for high speed rail and Hyperloop to transform our cities too
Travel demand management supported by technology
• Working from home or co-working spaces and flexibility of hours to reduce peak demand – the technology already exists (video conferencing and online collaboration)
Summary and property impacts/opportunities
Transport network impacts depend on many factors, but particularly whether Shared AVs are embraced.
For the property sector, there are possible urban sprawl / fringe development opportunities if longer travel times and distances are accepted e.g. live at the Sunshine Coast and commute to Brisbane – however is this a good outcome?
If sharing is embraced, I think there may be opportunities for:
• Denser, transit-orientated development that complement PT and active transport
• Co-working spaces (commercial property) dispersed through cities – people might not always need to work at the one office – reducing transport demand
The future is highly uncertain. However it’s up to us to build it, and shape our cities, and that’s something I’m passionate about having a hand in, as part of our PwC Infrastructure & Urban Renewal practice!
This article was originally posted on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/transport-network-impacts-avs-emerging-technologies-peter-stephan/